A year ago today, the news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was known in New York at the meeting of the United Nations Security Council, the body of power of the international organization. Its fifteen members called together urgently to try to avoid an imminent attack, after weeks and months of warnings from the US, which had divulged abundant intelligence on the matter. Russia denied everything up to the time of the invasion and most of the international community did not believe that Putin would take the step until he did. On that night at the UN headquarters, even the Russian ambassador, Vasili Nebenzia, seemed to be caught on the wrong foot by the invasion.
Today the Security Council meets again, on the anniversary of the war, without a solution to the conflict and with the possibility of it involving the great powers even more. In the air will be an issue that could complicate the war: the possibility of China sending weapons to Russia.
Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, will be in the Big Apple to represent his country at the meeting. He will do it after last weekend he assured that China is considering taking that step.
China has dedicated itself to providing rhetorical, political and diplomatic support to Russia, but we have information that worries us and indicates that they are considering providing lethal assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine,” he said in interviews with US television last Sunday. .
The head of US diplomacy issued the warning after meeting at the Munich Security Conference with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, and after meetings with Western allies with whom he shared intelligence supporting his conclusion that Beijing considers that possibility. Blinken claimed that he had warned Wang of the “serious consequences” that any weapons transfer would have.
Cool the decision
The Biden Administration’s strategy is to chill that decision, talking about it, as Blinken has done, and sharing the intelligence they have on it. According to ‘Politico’, in recent weeks the US government has lowered the level of secrecy of part of this classified information to share it with its Chinese counterparts.
But the US could go further and is considering publicly disclosing that intelligence to further pressure China, as revealed by ‘The Wall Street Journal’. One opportunity could be today at the Security Council meeting. Blinken already made similar moves in the same headquarters a year ago to try to contain the invasion of Russia – they telegraphed the buildup of Russian troops on the border and their preparations for war – and could do so today with all the attention paid to the appointment in the UN for the anniversary.
Given the statements by the Secretary of State, his counterpart in the European Union, Josep Borrell, assured this week that the shipment of Chinese weapons to Russia would be a “red line”. Borrell defended that so far they had not seen evidence that China is doing it but “we must continue to be vigilant.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that in the military alliance “we are increasingly concerned” about that possibility. US Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the most aggressive Republicans in foreign policy, has called it “the most catastrophic thing that could happen to the US-China relationship.”
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman did not directly respond this week to the question of whether Beijing is raising it, but noted that “it is the US, not China, that is supplying an endless stream of weapons.” Yesterday, in the extraordinary session of the General Assembly, the Chinese ambassador to the UN assured that “sending arms will not bring peace.”
Russia’s main support
China is Russia’s main support in the war. It has sought financial aid, bought its oil, fought international sanctions and sold it products that may be needed by its military, such as microchips.
If that cooperation spills over into arms transfers, it would be a decisive move in the war. China is a giant in the military industry and Russia is hampered on the front lines by a lack of arms and ammunition supplies. It would also occur at a time when the US – which has already sent more than 30,000 million dollars in weapons to Ukraine – and its allies are finding it difficult to comply with Kiev’s requests for weapons and in the run-up to a Russian offensive.
China has dedicated itself to providing rhetorical, political and diplomatic support to Russia, but we have information that worries us and indicates that they are considering providing lethal assistance to Russia in its war against Ukraine,” he said in interviews with US television last Sunday. .
The head of US diplomacy issued the warning after meeting at the Munich Security Conference with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, and after meetings with Western allies with whom he shared intelligence supporting his conclusion that Beijing considers that possibility. Blinken claimed that he had warned Wang of the “serious consequences” that any weapons transfer would have.
