India’s population will surpass China’s by 2023, UN says

China Population

The population of India will surpass that of China this year by 2.9 million and will become the most populous country in the world with 1,428.6 million inhabitants, according to data in a report published this Wednesday (04.19.2023) by the UN Population Fund (UNFPA).

Demographic indicators in the “State of World Population Report 2023” show that India will have an estimated population of 1,428.6 million people this year, compared with China’s 1,425.7. This estimate that refers to the “average during the year” does not specify when the surprise occurred.

The World Population Review Center, which estimates population growth projections in real time, indicates that on Wednesday India surpassed the barrier of 1,426 million inhabitants, with a gap of some 400,000 more inhabitants than China.

The international organization initially expected this to happen in the middle of this month of April, although the absence of a population census in India since 2011 makes it difficult to assess the accuracy of the projections. Thus, experts cannot determine exactly the date on which India will officially take the baton.

While the Indian sociologist SK Chaudhury told EFE that India will surpass China at some point this year, as estimated by the UN; there are opinions like those of demographer Rajesh K. Chauhan, who believes that this milestone will not be reached in the country for another four years.

Increase in India, negative growth in China

India prepares a new census every ten years, however, it had to postpone the one scheduled for 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic, and it will not be completed until 2024, according to the Indian authorities.

India’s rise to the top of the list of the world’s most populous countries would mark the first time China has been ousted from this position since the UN began keeping records in 1950.

Since that year, the Indian population has grown by more than a billion people, more than the total population of Europe, and continues to rise, unlike China, which for the first time in decades has begun to show negative growth.

According to UN estimates, India will continue to maintain positive population growth for decades, with the “medium variant” scenario, which averages historical behavior, estimating that India will exceed 1.5 billion people by 2030 and continue to increase until 2064. , when it will reach a maximum of 1,700 million.